Auvesta Market Report 2026 *
Gold, Silver & Global Financial Markets – Strategic Classification
Gold EUR 2025
Silver EUR 2025
Switch Pilot Success
Welcome to the first Auvesta Market Report
In recent years, Auvesta has traditionally communicated its market assessments at the beginning of the year through an interview with the board.
To ensure that you and all interested parties don't have to wait too long for our current perspectives, we have decided to publish our own Auvesta Market Report * starting in January 2026.
This report will be sent electronically to all business partners and customers once a year by the end of January going forward. Furthermore, we would like to invite you to follow Auvesta on various social media channels such as YouTube or Instagram, where we continuously publish new, up to date content for you.
Annual Updates
Always end of JanuarySocial Media
YouTube, Instagram & more1) The fundamental geopolitical and fiscal situation and its effects on economic framework conditions:
Tripolar World Order
The development towards a tripolar world order (USA, China, Russia) with partially colonialist tendencies (claims on Greenland, Venezuela, Ukraine, etc.) has intensified markedly.
Inflation & Budget Deficits
Persistent inflation rates above central bank targets and high budget deficits in many leading economies are increasingly leading to a loss of confidence in their respective financial stability.
Interest Rate Cuts & Dollar Weakness
Interest rate cuts in the USA and persistent dollar weakness have led to major buyers of U.S. government bonds (Japan, China, UK, etc.) investing significantly less or shifting assets into precious metals.
Silver as a Strategic Industrial Metal
Silver is solidifying its position as the most important strategic industrial metal. The highest silver demand is recorded in the electrical and electronics industry, followed by the solar industry (photovoltaics) and the automotive industry (especially electric vehicles).
All these industries are strong growing consumers, as silver is indispensable for electrical contacts in almost all devices and future technologies due to its excellent conductivity. The jewellery industry is also a major traditional consumer.
2) Price development of gold and silver in 2025
Gold price in EUR
Performance 2025
Silver price in EUR
Performance 2025
- Performance in U.S. dollars was even greater for both precious metals due to the appreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar. The U.S. currency lost around 9% against the euro.
- During the year, gold mostly outperformed silver in the first half, but silver was not only able to catch up but experienced an extreme appreciation, especially in the last quarter.
3) Specific market developments in silver in Q4 2025
! Market Premiums & Trading Spreads
Market premiums and Switch spreads for purchasing silver have increased significantly.
! Physical Supply Deficit
The increasing physical supply deficit and exhausted inventory levels or denominations at dealers led to ever larger purchase discounts for acquiring and processing scrap silver.
! Refineries Increased Overall Costs
Refineries recorded significantly higher overall costs due to necessary hedging and increased volumes.
! Margins & ETF Adjustments
The most significant futures exchanges for precious metals, COMEX in New York and the most important exchange for industrial metals, LME in London, increased margins for precious metal contracts three times. Furthermore, issuers of ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) adjusted their portfolio weighting to the detriment of silver. Both led to selling pressure, particularly in December, but had no lasting impact on the silver price long-term.
! Chinese Export Regulations
China introduced restrictive export regulations for silver effective 1st January 2026. China is the world's second-largest silver exporter after Mexico. This restriction primarily affects the depositing of silver for financial transactions, as silver has meanwhile become too important as a strategic metal for industry.
4) Which upcoming events could now influence price development in 2026?
Geopolitical Developments
High RiskGeopolitical developments can lead to sudden impacts and effects on the markets (Greenland question, Taiwan, Ukraine, Middle East, etc.).
Interest Rate Development in the USA
Medium RiskThe further interest rate development in the USA and any potential political influence by the U.S. administration are being watched attentively by market participants. A cut would be supportive for precious metal markets, a hike would increase risk.
Futures Contracts End of March
Critical Time PointAt the exchanges expiring at the end of March, positions would currently lead to a delivery volume of silver 40 times larger than what is deposited at COMEX in New York and LME in London. The question therefore arises whether the December scenario will repeat itself and whether this time it leads to larger corrections.
Silver Production as a By-Product
Structural ProblemUnlike gold, silver is a by-product of mining copper, lead, and zinc. Therefore, production cannot be scaled up easily, as the volumes of the other mined raw materials would also need to be increased proportionally. Further export restrictions from countries with high silver output could further exacerbate the current scarcity.
VAT on Investment Gold in the EU
Regulatory RiskFurthermore, there are initial proponents in individual EU countries for introducing VAT on investment gold. From today's perspective, Auvesta could react immediately, as large customs warehouses in third countries (Switzerland, England, Singapore) are already being used for storing white metals.
Risk Assessment 2026
5) Analysis of the Gold-Silver Ratio in 2025 and before, and assessments of the range for 2026:
Switch Pilot
Successful for 4 years
Strategic Trading Opportunity
For 4 years, Auvesta has been offering a strategic Switch opportunity between the precious metals gold and silver with the Switch Pilot program. The aim is to use the fluctuation of the gold-silver ratio to achieve an additional return in weight after one cycle (Switch and Switch- Back).
Available for All Customers
Initially it was only available to customers on higher tariffs, now all Auvesta customers with a volume of €2,000 or more in one metal can successfully use the Switch Pilot. We have records where customers achieved a demonstrable pure weight increase of 19% over 4 years.
Historical Development of the Gold-Silver Ratio
2023
2024
2025
Forecast January 2025
Actual Development 2025
99% Success Rate
We are pleased about the fact that many customers have placed trust in our assessments. According to our statistics, 99% of all customers who had the Switch Pilot activated have positively completed at least one cycle.
Most often this involved a Switch- Back from silver to gold with the result of a weight increase in gold.
6) Forecast and recommendations for action for the calendar year 2026
Customer Success
Consistently Successful
99% Success Rate Confirms Trust
We are pleased about the fact that many customers have placed trust in our assessments. According to our statistics, 99% of all customers who had the Switch Pilot activated have positively completed at least one cycle.
Most often this involved a Switch- Back from silver to gold with the result of a weight increase in gold. This success rate underscores the effectiveness of our strategic approaches in volatile market phases.
Market Assessment for 2026 Despite Challenges
Despite the challenging market conditions in January 2026 and the associated forecast uncertainty, we are also attempting to define a non-binding expectation for a range for this calendar year.
Expert Assessments
Based on market analyses & expert opinions
Gold Price Forecast 2026
Expected Mark
Many analysts anticipate that gold prices could surpass the psychologically significant USD 5,000 level this year. This outlook is driven by:
- Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty
- Inflationary tendencies in Western economies
- Increasing demand as a store of value
Silver Price Forecast 2026
USD range expected
For silver, stable price estimates in the triple-digit USD range are being given. Reasons for this are:
- Strategic importance for future technologies
- Ongoing industrial demand
- Limited physical availability
Expected Market Developments and Potential Corrections
Normalization in Silver Deliveries
Expected DevelopmentAt the same time, many market participants expect a slight normalization of supply bottlenecks in silver over the course of the year and a corresponding decline in excessive nervousness.
Geopolitical Influences
Correction PotentialA de-escalation of any geopolitical crises would expect a similar correction for gold.
Summary Forecast for 2026
In summary, these assumptions and perceptions lead us to an expected range between 45 and 65 points, resulting in a mean value of 55.
We also want to point out that the allocation between the two precious metals for new investments should be adapted to the respective market situation.
Recommended Strategy for New Investors
At the time of writing this Market Report 2026, we consider an allocation of 60% gold and 40% silver to be purposeful in order to leave sufficient room for maneuver in both directions in relation to a targeted weight increase.
Switch Pilot: Optimal Use of Ratio Fluctuations
In every phase of a ratio development, there will be an opportunity for a successfully completed cycle. The Switch Pilot enables systematic use of these opportunities.
Of course, every customer can define this bandwidth wider or narrower according to their personal expectations. Our advisors will be happy to assist you with the individual adjustment of your strategy.
Outlook and Monitoring
We will continuously monitor market developments and inform promptly in case of significant changes to our assessment. You will receive regular updates via our communication channels and in the next Market Report 2027.
We hope to have provided you with helpful orientation for the current calendar year and wish you much success in your decisions and actions.
Your Team at Auvesta Edelmetalle AG
Disclaimer / Risk Notices
* The data and information published in this email are to be understood as free information. They do not constitute a recommendation or investment-related, legal, or tax advice. This information therefore cannot be used as a basis for individual investment decisions and is also not an invitation to submit an offer to buy or sell specific investment products, commodities, financial instruments, or foreign currencies of any kind and form or to conclude contracts in this regard. Information on the past performance of products does not allow forecasts for the future. The prices and rates of investments and commodities of any kind and thus their returns can both rise and fall. Under certain circumstances, you may not receive back the entire amount invested. In some cases, this can lead to a total loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future developments. Additionally, exchange rate fluctuations can significantly influence the values of foreign investments. Please always consult a specialist, taking your personal situation into account, before deciding on an investment.